An Prediction Market User Earned $436,000 on Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro.
A trader made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was officially announced, sparking debate about whether someone profited from non-public details of the event.
Market Movement in Wagers
Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the month's conclusion surged in the hours before former President Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been seized.
One account, which became a member recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32.5K.
The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a cryptographic address for identification.
Odds Fluctuate Before News Break
Trading information shows that traders put the odds of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event.
However these probabilities had jumped to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, suggesting a sudden change in market sentiment just before the official statement was made.
"That trade has all the signs of a trade based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate.
A handful of other traders also made large payouts from bets on the same outcome.
Legal Questions Grows
Politicians are growing concerned.
A new rule presented on recently aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a bet.
Market Background
Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to politics.
This sector were examined under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate.
Trading on insider information is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting industry.
An official representative for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."
